The second quarter has been in many respects a continuation of the first quarter wherein financial markets have provided investors with little or no return on their investments. Today’s markets appear bewildered and subject to relatively sharp moves based on news stories and political maneuvering. Rising interest rates, potential trade wars, geopolitical concerns (populism, EU difficulties, sanctions) and a growing fear that the end is near for the long, but weak, economic expansion in the US all bear some responsibility for the confusion. Markets are driven by fundamentals and by emotions.
Our research process starts with a screen to narrow down our investable universe to a more manageable number of names. As the screen is reviewed, more names are removed from consideration due to unattractive qualitative factors, such as extreme cyclicality of revenues or earnings. A few names are targeted at a time for a deep qualitative dive, which includes a checklist of characteristics we want the company to demonstrate, such as sustainable margins and shareholder friendly management.
he Tax Reform and Reconciliation Act that passed last year contains provisions that allow for significant tax benefits for targeted investments in certain economically distressed communities. The legislation incentivizes development in these areas by allowing deferral and/ or reduction of capital gains taxes regardless of the source of the gains. The goal of this program is to spur development and the law is a descendant of enterprise zones championed by the late Jack Kemp.
The first quarter of 2018 marked the return of the kind of volatility that investors have not seen for some time. In just the first ninety days of 2018, the S&P had 25 separate sessions where prices moved up or down more than 1%. This compares with only 10 such moves during the entire course of 2017. Thus, in the first few months of this year, investors are being treated to almost three times the level of volatility experienced in all of 2017. If last year was an unusually quiet ‘kiddie’ ride at the park in volatility terms—2018 by comparison is a return to more ‘thrills and chills.’
The increase in Internet connectivity in the past two decades has brought with it countless benefits in terms of productivity and access to knowledge. It has also brought investors 24/7 access to stock market news as well as their investment portfolios. This level of access can be useful, but overexposure can often leave investors feeling panicked or that they need to ‘do something’—to time the market.
“ Users are fickle, Friendster has proved that. Even a few people leaving would reverberate through the entire userbase. The users are interconnected, that is the whole point. College kids are online because their friends are online, and if one domino goes, the other dominoes go, don’t you get that?”
–“The Social Network (2010)”: Mark Zuckerberg’s character to Eduardo Severin on the importance of the network staying up.
• Synchronized global growth continues as expansion enters 9th year after the Financial Crisis
• Central Banks own $11 trillion of government bonds, mortgage debt and corporate bonds
• Monetary stimulus will end and tightening begins in 2019
• Fundamentals should determine investment decisions and personal circumstances govern asset allocations
With the end of 2017, we can look back over the past nine years and take stock of how the world has fared. Memories of the 2008-2009 Great Recession are still quite vivid for some, but for many more, enough time has passed that fear has yielded to participation in the bull market.
- Act provides for lower tax rates compared to the earlier code
- No changes to capital gains and dividend tax rates
- Higher standard deduction will limit itemization for many filers
- State and Local property tax deduction capped at $10,000
- Increased gift limit to $15,000 and estate tax exemption doubled to $11.2 million
On December 22, 2017, President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) into law. Most provisions of this legislation became effective as of January 1st , and will remain in place for seven years, until midnight, December 31, 2025.