INVESTMENT COMMENTARY – THIRD QUARTER, 2021

Ripple Effects of Interest Rate Increases The stock market rallied consistently this year until the past month when the S&P 500 fell 5% due to several concerns. The Delta variant of COVID has slowed the economic rebound down due to less demand and persistent problems in supply chains. China also indicated that it would not financially support Evergrande, a financially unstable real estate development company, and the markets were spooked by fears of financial contagion. Finally, the Federal Reserve signaled that it would begin tapering its bond...

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INVESTMENT COMMENTARY – FIRST QUARTER, 2021

The US economy contracted by 2.3% last year as a result of the pandemic. Economic activity dropped precipitously in late March of 2020 and then rebounded strongly in the 3rd Quarter. Much of the contraction obviously related to the curtailment of in-person activities such as dining, travel, and entertainment. Consensus forecasts, which assume the vaccines protect against COVID variants and prevent another wave of infection, call for the economy to grow 6-7% this year. However, we expect the economic recovery to exceed expectations due to pent-up demand...

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INVESTMENT COMMENTARY – FOURTH QUARTER, 2020

Resilient Market, Tempering Future Expectations Resilient. That would be our response if asked to characterize 2020 U.S. equity market performance in a single word. The list of challenges markets overcame as prices moved to record levels is well known: the global pandemic, restrictive lockdowns, oil price wars, election uncertainty, etc. Investors experienced a full market cycle, which normally spans a 3 to 5-year period, in an incredibly short amount of time. The markets notched record highs in the start of the year before enduring a bear market decline over a…

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INVESTMENT COMMENTARY – THIRD QUARTER, 2020

The Most Important Election …. 2020 began with a hotly contested primary between a large field of traditional and more progressive candidates. Soon after former Vice President Biden secured the nomination, the novel Coronavirus interrupted the normal political process.  There have been almost no in-person events during the year and the candidates and their surrogates have waged media driven campaigns.  As with every election, passions are high, and many prognosticators warn that this is the most important election in the country’s history. While the political stakes are high, we do…

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